NM Could Decide the 2008 Race (no really!) – Duke City Fix
Electoral-vote.com classifies our state as “barely Democrat”. In New Mexico in 2000, Gore defeated Bush by 366 votes. In 2004 Bush beat Kerry by 5988 votes. It is conceivable that in 2008, New Mexico might decide who the next President is by a state margin of less than half a percentage point.
Each Party Is Set to Hunt The Other’s Usual Ground
An analysis of past elections shows remarkable stability. States the Democrats have won in four of the past five elections add up to 255 electoral votes; states Republicans have won in five of the past seven elections (including two Ronald Reagan electoral landslides) account for 269 electoral votes. New Hampshire, New Mexico and West Virginia, representing 14 electoral votes, fall into neither category.
In 2004, 13 states were decided by seven or fewer percentage points: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
2008 Electoral Map Based On Intrade Prediction Market
Democrat: 289
Republican: 227 [-13]
Dead Heat: 22 [+13]
Total: 538 (270 to win)
Election 2008: Presidential, Senate and House Races Updated Daily
Obama 287 McCain 227 Ties 24
The Back Forty » Sweet Seventeen By Sean Reagan
While not backing off its 50-state strategy, the Obama campaign is prepping for a 17 state focus – key battlegrounds where they’ll be directing the bulk of their resources.
The seventeen states are: Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, North Carolina, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin.
Obviously a lot of these are swing states – Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania. A couple – Georgia and North Carolina – are eye-openers, but as I noted earlier, forcing the Republicans to spend time and money in places they don’t want or didn’t expect to, is a net gain for Democrats.
[Sean Reagan] might’ve added a couple states – Montana and Maine most notably – but on whole it’s a sound list.
The other point to be made is that many of the states have a significant rural constituency. In terms of population, New Hampshire and North Carolina are ranked 11th and 12th respectively. Wisconsin and Missouri are 20 and 21.
Altogether, ten of the seventeen are ranked above the U.S. average of 21% rural population.
If Obama plans to win in these states, then he’s going to have to win the urban areas (at which he excels) but also pick up votes in the hinterlands. He’s already indicated that he knows this. Going forward, the fight for rural votes may be one of the most exciting stories of this election.
http://www.ruralvotes.com/thebackforty/?p=108