Bush’s re-election seen linked to state of U.S. economy and security in Iraq BETH GORHAM

If there’s anything shaping U.S. politics these days, it’s uncertainty. …

With a $200 million campaign chest and the incumbency, it is Bush’s election to lose.

And it’s hard to say how the American public’s love him or hate him attitudes will play out in a country so evenly divided that Cook’s public opinion surveys find most months that the two parties are within a point of each other.

Cook predicts a 90 per cent to 95 per cent chance that Republicans will hold onto the House of Representatives and an 80 per cent chance that they will keep a majority in the Senate.

“But the presidential race, I’m increasingly convinced, is just going to be very, very, very, very close,” he says.

“It would be very difficult for it to be any closer than last time, but I think it’s going to be very close.”