2004 Presidential Electoral College Predictions

Currently, Bush’s probability of winning the electoral college is 44.955%. The probability of an electoral college tie is 1.394%. Kerry wins with probability 53.651%. [The site is updated hourly!. See page for details.]

The site above uses data from the site below:

2.004k.com: Polling Data for 2004 Elections: By State

Electoral Votes

Needed to Win: 270 Electoral Votes

All states (based on most-current poll only):
Bush = 266
Kerry = 268
Tied = 4

Solid states (most-current poll is beyond statistical Margin of Error):
Bush = 149
Kerry = 185

Number of swing states (most-current poll is within Margin of Error): 19
11 swing states voted for Bush in 2000
8 swing states voted for Gore in 2000