New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan

For the first time in three surveys, soon-to-be Dem Prez nominee John Kerry cracks the magic 50% mark in the interactive New Mexico Zogby poll. My insiders are tracking the numbers and report in that Kerry gets 50%, Bush garners 43% and Ralph Nader just 1% in the poll conducted June 14-20 and that sports a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4%.

”The bad news in this poll is how Bush is running with Democrats. He gets only 12%. He must bring that number up, or he is going to lose this state,” predicted one analyst who is studying the numbers.

Bush does get a solid 93% among NM Republican voters but this is a Democratic state and there simply are not enough R’s here for him to carry the day. ”Bush needs to get a quarter or more of the Democrats if he is gong to win in November. Another concern for him is his weakening support in this poll in smaller cities and rural areas. That’s the first time we have seen that,” commented my deep insider.