AP: Bush Leads Kerry in Electoral Votes By RON FOURNIER, AP

With three months remaining in a volatile campaign, Kerry has 14 states and the District of Columbia in his column for 193 electoral votes. Bush has 25 states for 217 votes, according to an Associated Press analysis of state polls as well as interviews with strategists across the country. …

Bush and Kerry are running even in 11 states with a combined 128 electoral votes. Florida, Ohio, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Michigan and West Virginia are the toughest battlegrounds. Two other tossups, Pennsylvania and Oregon, could soon move to Kerry’s column. …

All total, 21 states are in play. Some will bounce between “lean” to “tossup” throughout the campaign.

Four years ago, Bush won 30 states and their 271 electoral votes _ one more than needed. Gore, who won the popular vote, claimed 20 states plus the District of Columbia for 267 electoral votes.

Since then, reapportionment added electoral votes to states with population gains and took them from states losing people. The result: Bush’s states are now worth 278 electoral votes and Gore’s are worth just 260.

Even if Kerry consolidates Gore’s states, no easy task, the Democrat must take 10 electoral votes from Bush’s column to close the electoral vote gap.

Kerry’s best prospects may be in the five tossup states won by Bush in 2000: Ohio, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and West Virginia.

Winning either Ohio’s 20 electoral votes or Florida’s 27 would do the trick.