(1) A review of state-by-state polls and historical voting data by Bloomberg News shows Bush ahead in 19 states, including Texas and Idaho, with 153 electoral votes. Kerry leads in 12 states, including New York and New Jersey, with 179 electoral votes. In 19 states that have 206 electoral votes, including Ohio and Wisconsin, the most recent polling results are within the margin of error.
(2) A compilation of surveys by Utica, New York-based Zogby Interactive said Kerry was leading Bush in the Electoral College, 286 to 214. The survey focuses on 16 battleground states and assumes that voters in the other 34 states will support of the candidate of the same party they backed in 2000.
(3) Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004
EC totals – (1) – (2) – (3)
Bush – 153 – 214 – 238
Kerry 179 – 286 – 280