BEWARE EXPLANATION: We humans reason very poorly, to the extent that we reason at all. Consider the current attempts to “explain” Tuesday’s election results.
First, there may not be much to “explain” here. When the electorate goes from 49-49 (Bush-Gore) to 51-48 (Bush-Kerry), that is a very minor “change.” Except on the micro level at which political pros work, it’s not clear that there’s anything much to explain here. And when a change in the vote is so small, almost any factor can be said to “explain” it. For example, how many points did Kerry lose because of the endless Swift Boat attacks? We don’t know how to answer that question, but we haven’t seen the Swift Boat matter come up very often in the instant “explanations.” [mjh: Pat Buchanan called the Swift Boat Liars For Bush the “winners” in this election.] Instead, Stampeding Pundits have rushed toward a few standard “explanations”? of the minor change in voter behavior. Sorry–there will rarely be a way to “explain”? such a change, although many aspects of Campaign 04 are, of course, well worth discussing.
But we are all human, and we humans reason very poorly unless we work hard to stay on track. Such hard work is foreign to our press corps. How does the press corps approach an election? First, pundits waste their time (and ours) for weeks trying to predict the election’s outcome. And let’s face it, these efforts tend to go very poorly.( In this election, John Zogby couldn’t come close to “predicting” the outcome ten hours after the voting began!) But so what? Hours later, predictions in ruins, pundits begin “explaining”? the outcome–the outcome which they couldn’t predict. Of course, they can’t explain it either–but in that case, there is no objective check on the high theories that they throw off.
Why did this race end up 51-48? Most pundits can’t answer to that question, and don’t even know how to approach it. We make this suggestion: Beware explanation. Many aspects of this election are worth discussing. But most of the pundits you see on TV won’t even know what they are.
I recommend you read the rest of Howler’s column for a discussion of the Religious Right that feels ‘dissed’ by Democratic Elites. mjh