Bloomberg.com: Top Worldwide

(1) A review of state-by-state polls and historical voting data by Bloomberg News shows Bush ahead in 19 states, including Texas and Idaho, with 153 electoral votes. Kerry leads in 12 states, including New York and New Jersey, with 179 electoral votes. In 19 states that have 206 electoral votes, including Ohio and Wisconsin, the most recent polling results are within the margin of error.

(2) A compilation of surveys by Utica, New York-based Zogby Interactive said Kerry was leading Bush in the Electoral College, 286 to 214. The survey focuses on 16 battleground states and assumes that voters in the other 34 states will support of the candidate of the same party they backed in 2000.

(3) Current Electoral Vote Predictor 2004

EC totals – (1) – (2) – (3)
Bush – 153 – 214 – 238
Kerry 179 – 286 – 280

Remarks by President Bush at Las Cruces, New Mexico Rally

In order to keep this country safer, stronger, and better put Dick and I back into office. (Applause.) …

See, I don’t think you can be — I don’t think you can be pro-patient and pro-doctor and pro-trial lawyer at the same time. (Applause.) I think you have to choose. My opponent made his choice and he put him on the ticket. I made my choice: I am for medical liability reform. (Applause.) …

There’s not enough money to tax the rich to pay for all his promises. If he gets elected, he’s going to tax you. But the good news is we’re not going to let him get elected. (Applause.) …

I want to thanks the Senator for clearing that up. (Applause.) There’s still a little over 60 days for him to change his mind again. (Laughter.) …

We received great bipartisan support for that important spending. Matter of fact, the support was so strong that only 12 members of the United States Senate voted against it. Two of them are my opponent and his running
mate.

AUDIENCE: Booo!

THE PRESIDENT: The Senator tried to explain his vote by saying this: “I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it.” Now, he’s offering a different explanation. Originally, he said he was proud of the vote. And then when pressed, he said it was just a complicated matter.
There’s nothing complicated about supporting our troops in combat. (Applause.)

Daily Howler: John O’Neill lied in George’s face. He knew George was weak and unprepared

Did Kerry try to “gut intelligence” in 1995? Bush said so back in March, and today we get another look at how cosmically phony that claim really was. In today’s Post, Dana Milbank reports that Rep. Porter Goss (R-FL) also proposed a cut in intelligence services that year—a cut that was massively larger than Kerry’s. But is Bush disturbed by Goss’s bad judgment? Hardly! Goss is now the president’s choice to head the CIA!
—-
DOLE (1988): As we approached the enemy, there was a brief exchange of gunfire. I took a grenade in hand, pulled the pin, and tossed it in the direction of the farmhouse. It wasn’t a very good pitch (remember, I was used to catching passes, not throwing them). In the darkness, the grenade must have struck a tree and bounced off. It exploded nearby, sending a sliver of metal into my leg — the sort of injury the Army patched up with Mercurochrome and a Purple Heart.

Laughable, isn’t it? As Dole explained when he was being more honest, his own Purple Heart was the result of a superficial wound — a superficial wound that was self-inflicted! It takes a special kind of man to say what Dole said to Blitzer on Sunday — and it takes a non-existent press corps to look the other way when he does.

Kerry Maintains Lead Over Bush Among Likely Voters in New Mexico

John Kerry continues to have a slight lead over George W. Bush among likely voters in New Mexico according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 49% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 42% say they would vote for Bush. … These overall results are unchanged from a survey conducted in early July.

In a race between just Bush and Kerry, Kerry leads Bush 52% to 42%, with 6% undecided.

New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan

Bush’s big NM problem remains the Democrats. …

The stop in ABQ, like the one in Dona Ana, is a swing vote move, with the vote in the areas outside of the city limits still seen as vital and laden with possibility. Bush was beaten by Gore by about 4,000 votes four years ago in Bernalillo and needs to at least tie here and probably win it if he is to get our five electoral votes, say our Prez pros.

“This is a good playbook. With Bush here for a full day he demonstrates his seriousness about capturing the state. His earlier stops have been short hops that did not give him the exposure he needed,” observed our insider R analyst. …

Again, in future polls watch that D number. That’s the key. It’s essential the Prez win over moderate D’s or else he is dead money. It will be interesting to see from his speeches in ABQ and Cruces Thursday how he will go about getting the job done.

The New York Times – Bush Promises to Offer Detailed Plans at Convention

Republicans said they would seek to turn any disruptions to their advantage, by portraying protests by even independent activists as Democratic-sanctioned displays of disrespect for a sitting president. … [mjh: so much for freedom of speech and association]

Republicans are pressing for a quick and quiet adoption of a platform to minimize dissent over issues that have divided the party, in particular immigration restrictions and a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage.

The New York Times – Friendly Fire: The Birth of an Anti-Kerry Ad

A series of interviews and a review of documents show a web of connections to the Bush family, high-profile Texas political figures and President Bush’s chief political aide, Karl Rove.

Records show that the group received the bulk of its initial financing from two men with ties to the president and his family – one a longtime political associate of Mr. Rove’s, the other a trustee of the foundation for Mr. Bush’s father’s presidential library. A Texas publicist who once helped prepare Mr. Bush’s father for his debate when he was running for vice president provided them with strategic advice. And the group’s television commercial was produced by the same team that made the devastating ad mocking Michael S. Dukakis in an oversized tank helmet when he and Mr. Bush’s father faced off in the 1988 presidential election. …

Several of those now declaring Mr. Kerry “unfit” had lavished praise on him, some as recently as last year. …

Patrick Runyon, who served on a mission with Mr. Kerry, said he initially thought the caller was from a pro-Kerry group, and happily gave a statement about the night Mr. Kerry won his first Purple Heart. The investigator said he would send it to him by e-mail for his signature. Mr. Runyon said the edited version was stripped of all references to enemy combat, making it look like just another night in the Mekong Delta.

“It made it sound like I didn’t believe we got any returned fire,” he said. “He made it sound like it was a normal operation. It was the scariest night of my life.” …

“I went to university and was called a baby killer and a murderer because of guys like Kerry and what he was saying,” said Van Odell, who appears in the first advertisement, accusing Mr. Kerry of lying to get his Bronze Star. “Not once did I participate in the atrocities he said were happening.”

As Mr. Lonsdale explained it: “We won the battle. Kerry went home and lost the war for us.

It’s payback time for daring to question what Duhbya was doing in the National Guard. Now, the same long knives that gutted McCain in 2000 are drawn on Kerry. mjh

Update: Two New Witnesses Contradict Kerry’s Swift Boat Critics – FactCheck.org

We have updated our Aug. 6 article on the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth ad to include two new accounts that surfaced Aug. 22. One supported Kerry’s account of the actions for which he was awarded the Silver Star, and the other supported Kerry’s account of receiving enemy fire during the rescue for which Kerry was awarded the Bronze Star.

Conservatives push for prime-time spots at convention By Anne-Marie O’Connor, Los Angeles Times

Many socially conservative leaders feel slighted, saying their representatives have been edged out of prime-time convention speaking slots by more moderate Republicans ….

Conservative activist Phyllis Schlafly said she thought her party was engaged in a misguided attempt to spotlight moderate “political celebrities” who play well to a liberal media.

Janice Crouse, a leader of Concerned Women for America, said President Bush should worry more about evangelical Christian voters, or he will jeopardize their support in tight races in the crucial swing states.

“The gays and pro-abortion people are saying you’ve got to add a plank,” Crouse said. “If the president adds that plank, they will nail him to it.”

Christian Coalition founder Pat Robertson is talking about not going to New York at all.

“Apparently political stars get rewarded with a prime-time convention spot if they disagree with President Bush’s position” on a constitutional gay marriage ban, “as well as … President Bush’s position on the right to life,” conservative columnist Paul Weyrich said. “They can also disagree with the president’s position on capital punishment, guns and a host of other issues.”

“As an Orthodox Christian, I am outraged that men like this would be highlighted,” Weyrich said. “If the president is embarrassed to be seen with conservatives at the convention, maybe conservatives will be embarrassed to be seen with the president on Election Day.”

Proof that the Republican Convention is designed to deceive the casual observer, just as it was in 2000, just as most things the Bush adminstration does: they want us to watch what they say, not what they do. mjh