Candidates Narrow Focus to 18 States
Battle Has Begun In Most-Contested Areas of Nation
By Dan Balz and Jim VandeHei
Washington Post Staff Writers
The election-night mapmakers created an indelible image of political America in 2000: red states for Republicans, blue states for Democrats, and a handful of states, crowned by disputed Florida, that remained competitive until the very end. Campaign 2004 begins where 2000 left off. …
Four years ago, red and blue states were so finely balanced that Bush was declared the winner with 271 electoral votes, one more than required. Five of the 50 states, led by Florida’s dead-heat 537-vote outcome, were decided by less than a single percentage point.
In 18 states, the winner’s margin was 6 percentage points or less, and at the start of the 2004 general election, at least 17 are seen as competitive battlegrounds, as the campaigns’ initial advertising strategists suggest. …
Judging from interviews with strategists on both sides and with outside analysts, 10 of the closest states from four years ago are seen as the most competitive as the campaign begins. Bush and Gore split them five-five. The Bush states that may be most vulnerable to Democratic takeover are Florida, Ohio, Missouri, New Hampshire and Nevada, while the five Gore states eyed by the GOP are Pennsylvania, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and New Mexico.
The results of 2000 underscore the electoral parity between the parties in both the competitive and noncompetitive states. In the 32 states and the District that were decided by more than 6 percentage points, Republicans won 21 while Democrats captured 12. But when measured in electoral votes, the two parties’ bases are more even: The GOP states account for 179 electoral votes while the Democratic states, including California and New York, total 168.
The same equilibrium holds for the 18 closest states: The nine Republican states now account for 99 electoral votes, and the nine Democratic states add up to 92. …
Four years ago, the loss of one more state of any size would have cost Bush the election. That is no longer the case because of reapportionment after the 2000 Census. If Bush were to win all the states he won and Kerry won all of Gore’s states, the electoral count would be 278 to 260, an advantage of 18 electoral votes for Bush rather than four. …
with the exception of Florida, where a recent poll showed Kerry ahead of Bush, the South looks more forbidding to the Democrats in 2004 than it was in any of the past three elections, when southerners Clinton or Gore or both were on the ticket.
This is a more thorough, thoughtful analysis than the one I quoted a few days ago (see link below). In particular, note that if Bush wins exactly what he won (or was given) in 2000, he gets MORE electoral votes than 4 years ago, thanks to the census. mjh
