{"id":1389,"date":"2004-10-13T10:23:50","date_gmt":"2004-10-13T17:23:50","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.edgewiseblog.com\/mjh\/uncategorized\/probability-favors-kerry\/"},"modified":"2004-10-13T10:23:50","modified_gmt":"2004-10-13T17:23:50","slug":"probability-favors-kerry","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.edgewiseblog.com\/mjh\/nada\/dump-duhbya\/probability-favors-kerry\/","title":{"rendered":"Probability Favors Kerry"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a title=\"2004 Presidential Electoral College Predictions\" href=\"http:\/\/www.econ.umn.edu\/~amoro\/Research\/presprobs.html\">2004 Presidential Electoral College Predictions<\/a><\/p>\n<p><b>Currently, Bush&#8217;s probability of winning the electoral college is 44.955%. The probability of an electoral college tie is 1.394%. Kerry wins with probability 53.651%.<\/b> [The site is updated <em>hourly!<\/em>. See page for details.]<\/p>\n<p>The site above uses data from the site below:<\/p>\n<p><a title=\"2.004k.com: Polling Data for 2004 Elections: By State\" href=\"http:\/\/2.004k.com\/\">2.004k.com: Polling Data for 2004 Elections: By State<\/a><\/p>\n<p>Electoral Votes<\/p>\n<p>Needed to Win:  270  Electoral Votes<\/p>\n<p>All states (based on most-current poll only):<br \/>\n  Bush = 266<br \/>\n  Kerry = 268<br \/>\n  Tied = 4<\/p>\n<p>Solid states (most-current poll is beyond statistical Margin of Error):<br \/>\n  Bush = 149<br \/>\n  Kerry = 185<\/p>\n<p>Number of swing states (most-current poll is within Margin of Error): 19<br \/>\n  11 swing states voted for Bush in 2000<br \/>\n  8 swing states voted for Gore in 2000<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>2004 Presidential Electoral College Predictions Currently, Bush&#8217;s probability of winning the electoral college is 44.955%. The probability of an electoral college tie is 1.394%. Kerry wins with probability 53.651%. [The site is updated hourly!. See page for details.] The site above uses data from the site below: 2.004k.com: Polling Data for 2004 Elections: By State &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/www.edgewiseblog.com\/mjh\/nada\/dump-duhbya\/probability-favors-kerry\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">Probability Favors Kerry<\/span> <span class=\"meta-nav\">&rarr;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1389","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-dump-duhbya"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.edgewiseblog.com\/mjh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1389","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.edgewiseblog.com\/mjh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.edgewiseblog.com\/mjh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.edgewiseblog.com\/mjh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.edgewiseblog.com\/mjh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1389"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.edgewiseblog.com\/mjh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1389\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.edgewiseblog.com\/mjh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1389"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.edgewiseblog.com\/mjh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1389"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.edgewiseblog.com\/mjh\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1389"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}