Add to the following important facts: Republican registration is around 32% and Independents less than 20%. Even if every non-Dem votes Republican (and they won’t), Republicans only win if Dems don’t vote or do vote Republican.

Democracy for New Mexico: NM Democrats Beating Republicans in Early Voting by 8000+ Votes

Here are the facts:

• 8,000 more Democrats than Republicans have voted early, according to the most recent data provided by the Secretary of State. This data does not include Early Voting that took place on Saturday, traditionally the busiest Early Voting day of the cycle, which is expected to increase the Democrats’ early vote margin considerably.

• Democrats also have a lead among “infrequent voters” — those who typically don’t vote in non-presidential year elections — a group that most experts consider a key turn-out target in order to win in 2010.

• Early vote and absentee data from New Mexico show that Democrats in the state are outperforming Democrats in other states with competitive Governor races, such as Florida and Colorado. [Denver Post, 10/30/10; Palm Beach Post, 10/29/10]

• And internal polling from just a week ago showed a much closer governor race — 45-46 — among likely voters. The internal polling in other campaigns also shows tight races, not romps.

Democracy for New Mexico: NM Democrats Beating Republicans in Early Voting by 8000+ Votes