I believe this election turned out the way it did in no small part because a large number of Americans are now submerged in new factories of lies more insidious than anything Orwell imagined, and that while the worst of it is the foreign and far-right intentional distortion of reality, too much of the mainstream media has been deferential and will be more deferential to authoritarianism and will not stop letting the right set the agenda about what to be concerned about and what matters. In fact, I don’t have to believe that disinformation is impactful; I know it because it’s been documented. The data group Ipsos reports: “Americans who answer questions about inflation, crime, and immigration incorrectly are more likely to opt for Trump, while Americans who answer those questions correctly prefer Harris.” …
The outcome of this election is the result of disinformation and the rise of a huge rightwing media industry, both as enterprises like Fox and Newsmax but also the hordes of blogs, podcasts, Russian-produced propaganda on social media, Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter, online subcultures of misogynists and white supremacists and the rest. Finding and sharing good sources of information is part of the job.
After all those conversations, I think the main reason that Harris and Walz lost this campaign is simple: Trump. Ultimately, he was simply too much of a pull again. Despite the gaffes, despite his views on women, despite his distaste for democracy and despite an insurrection, voters just didn’t care. For reasons that I’m sure will be studied for decades, when he speaks, people listen. When he speaks, people believe him. After all those calls, I can be shocked at this result, but hardly surprised.
By and large, it was the economy. For gen Z voters who care about the economy, they really broke for Donald Trump.
Abortion really dropped as being the most salient issue for younger people. I think that was the most surprising to me.
If you look at the youth vote in 2022 – and this is all young voters, not just men or women – 44% said abortion was the issue they put at their top priority. Whereas this fall, the issue was only 13% [exit polling shows]. That’s a pretty big cratering.
[mjh: I’ve read many think the abortion issue is resolved by the States. Fine if you don’t get pregnant in Florida.]
The party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command. His heart sank as he thought of the enormous power arrayed against him, the ease with which any Party intellectual would overthrow him in debate, the subtle arguments which he would not be able to understand, much less answer. And yet he was in the right! They were wrong and he was right. George Orwell
Although the vote count is unfinished, Trump is expected to meet the 74m votes he won in 2020, while Harris is on track to far underperform the 81m votes garnered in 2020 by her predecessor, Joe Biden. …
Where specific policy proposals were on the ballot, “red” US states passed progressive laws such as minimum wage protections, while “blue” states voted for conservative measures such as tough-on-crime initiatives. Abortion access measures won in seven states but fell short in three.
Updated figures likely to change again. Hard to believe that in an election that both sides described as existential, that BOTH candidates got fewer votes than in 2020 — 15 million people didn’t vote?
"It does not require a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority keen to set brush fires in people's minds." — Sam Adams
