Shifts in States May Give Bush Electoral Edge By KATHARINE Q. SEELYE, NYTimes

Beyond issues like Iraq and the economy is one political reality that both the White House and Democrats say is already shaping next year’s presidential race: If President Bush carries the same states in 2004 that he won in 2000, he will win seven more electoral votes.

That change, a result of a population shift to Republican-friendly states in the South and West in the last several years, means the Republicans have a slight margin of error in 2004 while the Democrats will have to scramble just to pull even. …

”Before a vote is cast, we’ve increased our margin,” Matthew Dowd, chief strategist for Mr. Bush’s campaign, said. ”In a race that’s very close, those small readjustments in the electoral map will have significance.”

Because of those shifts, both sides predict that 15 states may be up for grabs: Oregon, Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Missouri, Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, New Hampshire, Maine and Florida. …

“No matter how well the economy is doing, no matter how well we’re doing in Iraq, and even if we’re running the best campaign in the world, this election will be decided within a margin of 4 or 5 percent,” Mr. Dowd said.