2004 Presidential Electoral College Predictions

Last auto-update with new polls from 2.004k.com: October 18th, 01:01 PM

Bush wins the electoral college with probability 39.3%
The probability of an electoral college tie is 1.277%
Kerry wins the electoral college with probability 59.423%

Expected Kerry winning margin: 10.4 electoral votes (95% confidence interval: [-138 124] votes)