Kerry Maintains Lead Over Bush Among Likely Voters in New Mexico

John Kerry continues to have a slight lead over George W. Bush among likely voters in New Mexico according to a survey by the American Research Group. A total of 49% of likely voters say they would vote for Kerry if the presidential election were being held today and 42% say they would vote for Bush. … These overall results are unchanged from a survey conducted in early July.

In a race between just Bush and Kerry, Kerry leads Bush 52% to 42%, with 6% undecided.

New Mexico Politics with Joe Monahan

Bush’s big NM problem remains the Democrats. …

The stop in ABQ, like the one in Dona Ana, is a swing vote move, with the vote in the areas outside of the city limits still seen as vital and laden with possibility. Bush was beaten by Gore by about 4,000 votes four years ago in Bernalillo and needs to at least tie here and probably win it if he is to get our five electoral votes, say our Prez pros.

“This is a good playbook. With Bush here for a full day he demonstrates his seriousness about capturing the state. His earlier stops have been short hops that did not give him the exposure he needed,” observed our insider R analyst. …

Again, in future polls watch that D number. That’s the key. It’s essential the Prez win over moderate D’s or else he is dead money. It will be interesting to see from his speeches in ABQ and Cruces Thursday how he will go about getting the job done.