Arizona is not the only red state where Trump is vulnerable. In Georgia, Democrats dream of capitalizing on the large black and growing Latino populations to put the state in play. And in Utah, one of the nation’s most solidly Republican states, a recent poll had the race tied. Resistance to Trump among Mormons, who make up a majority of Utah’s voters, is intense; Romney is a leader of the “Never Trump” movement.
The Mormon resistance may have an effect in Arizona as well. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints counts more than 400,000 members here, which is roughly 6 percent of the state’s population. If enough Mormons vote against Trump or stay home, it would depress his vote total.
The swing vote here traditionally is moderate Republican women — and doubts about Trump’s character has softened his support with this block. Arizona has a celebrated history of electing female executives, including Brewer and her predecessor, Democrat Janet Napolitano, which is another reason Clinton’s allies feel bullish.